The results of lockdowns “has been the destruction of hundreds of thousands of lives throughout America in addition to elevated deaths from suicide, substance abuse and despair with none corresponding profit in covid mortality.”
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Feb. 2, 2020
For months, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has boasted about his state’s “open for enterprise” technique in coping with covid-19 and the way it’s working higher than so-called lockdown states.
This story was produced in partnership with PolitiFact. It may be republished without cost.
Not like in another states, all Florida public colleges are open for in-person studying, eating places and bars have few restrictions, and the state has barred native governments from penalizing people for not sporting a masks in public.
In a latest rant towards social community corporations similar to Fb and Twitter, DeSantis advised that states that had instituted heavy restrictions on residents skilled extreme repercussions for residents with out lowering the variety of covid deaths.
“Lockdowns on the time of the pandemic had been favored by the, quote, ‘narrative’ and so, within the identify of, quote, ‘science,’ articles and posts warning towards lockdowns had been taken down and censored,” stated DeSantis. “The consequence has been the destruction of hundreds of thousands of lives throughout America, in addition to elevated deaths from suicide, substance abuse and despair, with none corresponding profit in covid mortality.”
We questioned whether or not that was true. Have state restrictions completed such vital hurt with out offering any increase within the battle towards covid deaths? So we dug in.
Locking In on Lockdowns
To cut back the unfold of the coronavirus, states have enacted — after which generally relaxed or lifted — numerous restrictions, together with masks mandates, limits on restaurant capability, stay-at-home orders and bans on massive gatherings.
DeSantis, a Republican, has bristled at such statewide orders, even resisting pleas from native officers in Florida and criticizing different jurisdictions for implementing them. He has persistently questioned their effectiveness. Late final yr, for example, he claimed that states with lockdowns had covid transmission charges twice as excessive as Florida’s. We rated that Half True.
We requested DeSantis’ workplace for any proof supporting his more moderen declare. The response reveals a blended bag of knowledge.
Test the Information: Did Florida’s Path Result in Much less ‘Despair’?
To help the governor’s declare that different states have seen increased numbers of deaths from suicide, substance abuse and despair than Florida has throughout the pandemic, DeSantis’ workplace despatched info from the Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention exhibiting “all trigger” mortality charges elevated slower in Florida in 2020 — coinciding with the pandemic’s first months by means of June 3 — over 2019 charges than in California and New York — two states which have opted for extra rules on public gatherings and mask-wearing. DeSantis’ evaluation confirmed Florida’s charge rose 15% in contrast with 16% in California and 29% in New York.
However the “all causes” class goes far past deaths related to suicide and drug abuse. It consists of deaths from most cancers, coronary heart illness, lung illness and dementia, for instance.
DeSantis’ workplace didn’t present any information exhibiting how charges of suicide and drug abuse in Florida in contrast with these in so-called lockdown states. It despatched us a Miami Herald article that stated in Florida, in keeping with preliminary health workers’ statistics, 2,975 individuals died by suicide in 2020, down 13% from the earlier yr. However the article didn’t have nationwide information or figures from California or New York.
Regarding overdose deaths, DeSantis’ workplace didn’t present particular info. Nevertheless, well being consultants stated the pandemic probably did enhance opioid overdoses. However the newest, provisional CDC information on drug overdose deaths exhibits Florida’s numbers rising quicker than the nationwide common.
Evaluating the 12-month interval ending in June 2020 to the prior 12 months, the interval for which information is obtainable, Florida had a 34% enhance within the charge of overdose deaths in contrast with a 20% nationwide common amongst states. California had a 23% enhance and New York had an 18% enhance.
In the meantime, federal suicide information reflecting the months by which the pandemic has transpired won’t probably be accessible till 2022. Consultants say that anecdotal proof suggests a potential uptick in suicide charges throughout the pandemic. As well as, an internet instrument provided by the nonprofit Psychological Well being America to assist display for psychological well being points confirmed a slight enhance final yr in individuals having suicidal ideas.
Nonetheless, Paul Gionfriddo, the group’s CEO, stated he is aware of of no research exhibiting that so-called lockdown states have increased charges of suicide than these with fewer restrictions.
Gionfriddo stated DeSantis might imagine he’s mitigating the dangerous results of loneliness by not limiting public gatherings. However loneliness is just not the one motive individuals cite in contemplating suicide, he stated. Grief, monetary insecurity and different elements additionally play a job, he stated.
John Auerbach, president and CEO of Belief for America’s Well being, a nonprofit assume tank, stated it’s tough to pinpoint the psychological influence of restrictions to cut back an infection as a result of guidelines differ by state and inside states, and such rules have been imposed and lifted at totally different instances.
Auerbach stated he is aware of of no proof that hyperlinks states’ covid restrictions to suicides or drug overdose deaths.
“There are a lot of contributing elements to suicide and drug overdoses,” he stated. The pandemic itself is having the most important impact on heightening individuals’s threat of dying from suicide and drug abuse — not the states’ totally different approaches to forestall the transmission of an infection, he added.
“It’s the underlying pandemic that’s on the root of elevated dangers,” Auerbach stated.
Factoring In Covid Mortality Charges
DeSantis additionally argued that statewide restrictions didn’t convey any corresponding profit in limiting covid mortality.
We requested his workplace for proof. They once more pointed to the CDC enhance in “all trigger” mortality information that confirmed California’s charge was barely increased than Florida’s. However these statistics cowl all causes of loss of life, and individuals are nonetheless dying of ailments and circumstances apart from covid.
We then consulted three epidemiologists to get their take. All of them stated the governor was enjoying free with the details. They careworn various elements that have an effect on states’ mortality charges — from the climate to socioeconomic indicators to entry to well being providers.
The epidemiologists pointed to the most recent CDC information, which indicated that Florida’s covid mortality charge is increased than California’s and appeared to undercut DeSantis’ place that lockdowns have solely harm states.
As of Feb. 22, Florida ranked twenty eighth in covid loss of life charges whereas California ranked thirty third, in keeping with the most recent CDC information, as compiled by Statista.
“That will bolster the argument that restrictions are one issue concerned in reducing loss of life charges,” stated Nicole Gatto, an affiliate professor of public well being at Claremont Graduate College in California.
Quite a few others additionally have an impact, Gatto stated, so it’s inconceivable to check states utilizing present information primarily based on their methods.
“I do assume it’s an oversimplification to make the assertion that the governor did with out additional research of the quite a few variables concerned, traits of the inhabitants, timing of interventions and the restrictions of the info,” she stated.
DeSantis stated lockdown states have seen “elevated deaths from suicide, substance abuse and despair with none corresponding profit in covid mortality.”
The pandemic definitely has precipitated nervousness and misery throughout the nation, and state and native restrictions designed to tamp down on the coronavirus’s unfold have additionally affected individuals’s monetary and emotional well-being. However at the moment, no clear information helps DeSantis’ strongly worded declare. Researchers agreed that extra analysis is critical earlier than such broad conclusions may very well be drawn. As well as, consultants stated that covid loss of life charges differ by state and quite a few elements past state methods to fight the virus have an effect on this metric.
We charge the assertion Largely False.
Gov. Ron DeSantis information convention, Feb. 2, 2021
Phone interview with Paul Gionfriddo, president and CEO of Psychological Well being America, Feb. 12, 2021
Psychological Well being America, Take a Psychological Well being Take a look at, Psychological Well being America on-line screening instrument, accessed Feb. 12, 2021
Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention, Important Statistics Fast Launch: Provisional Drug Overdose Demise Counts — CDC information on overdose deaths, Feb. 7, 2021
Electronic mail correspondence with Meredith Beatrice, DeSantis spokesperson, Feb. 10 and 11, 2021
Phone interview with John Auerbach, president and CEO of Belief for America’s Well being, Feb. 12, 2021
Electronic mail interview with Nicole Gatto, MPH, Ph.D., affiliate professor of public well being at Claremont Graduate College, Feb. 18, 2021
Electronic mail interview with William Miller, professor of epidemiology on the Ohio State College, Feb. 18, 2021
Phone interview with Dr. Robert Murphy, professor of drugs and biomedical engineering and govt director, Northwestern College’s Institute for World Well being, Feb. 18, 2021
Statista, Demise charges from coronavirus (COVID-19) in the USA as of Feb. 17, 2021, by state, accessed Feb. 22, 2021
Miami Herald, “One Pandemic Constructive: Suicides in Florida Really Plummeted. Consultants Fear It Gained’t Final,” Feb. 10, 2021
PolitiFact, “Is Florida Doing Higher on COVID-19 than ‘Locked Down’ States? Dec. 2, 2020